Operation Sindoor is currently on pause—at least as long as there are no terror activities by Pakistan on Indian soil. This military operation allowed India to showcase its military strength and exposed the limitations of defense systems from China, Turkey, and even the U.S. (particularly at the Nur Khan Airbase in Pakistan). As a result, several countries have shown renewed interest in Indian-made defense equipments, and the share prices of Indian defense companies have surged. While much attention has been given to India’s military and strategic gains, very few have looked into how China may have benefited geopolitically from this conflict. In this post, I want to explore that angle.
The QUAD in Trouble?
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)—formed by India, the US, Japan, and Australia—was designed to counter China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific. However, after the Russia-Ukraine war, QUAD’s momentum began to slow. Now, Operation Sindoor may have dealt another blow to the alliance.
At the beginning of the operation, the US distanced itself, saying it had no business in the India-Pakistan conflict. But once India targeted Pakistan’s Nur Khan airbase and the Kirana Hills, Washington’s tone quickly changed. Although the US State Department remained publicly cautious—perhaps surprised at India’s military capabilities— President Donald Trump began making anti-India and pro-Pakistan statements, despite previously branding himself a strong friend of India and Hindus.
This sudden shift raised serious concerns in India. Many observers believe Trump’s change in tone is linked to millions of dollars reportedly invested by Pakistan into his family’s crypto business, along with financial backing from Qatar. Regardless of the reasons, his post-election statements have served as a wake-up call for the Modi government, pushing India to re-evaluate its foreign policy priorities.
The Trust Gap in US-India Relations
India-US ties have already been under strain—particularly during the Biden administration. One of the flashpoints was Bangladesh, where Indian officials believe the US played a key role in removing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power. Hoping for a reset under Trump’s presidency, Indian policymakers were disappointed when his post-election statements favored Pakistan. India was ready to handle tariff-related tensions, but Trump’s pro-Pakistan stance and geopolitical pivot caught India off guard.
This has led to growing mistrust inside QUAD. Even if the alliance continues to exist, the level of trust among its members—especially between India and the US—has taken a serious hit. This outcome plays directly into China’s strategic interest, as Beijing has always opposed QUAD and viewed it as an anti-China alliance. Russia had long warned India about relying too heavily on US partnerships, but Prime Minister Modi chose to trust Trump, whom he considered a personal friend. Now, recent developments are a stark reminder of what Henry Kissinger once said: “To be America’s enemy may be dangerous, but to be its friend is fatal.“
China’s Silent Win
Although Chinese defense companies may lose contracts in the short term, China has scored a big geopolitical win. With QUAD shaken and India rethinking its trust in the US, China has successfully weakened the foundation of the alliance formed to contain its influence. So while India may have won the battlefield during Operation Sindoor, China has gained the most in the geopolitical arena.