The withdrawal of Chinese troops from four locations in Eastern Ladakh, including the Galwan Valley, has made headlines worldwide. Relations between India and China, two of the world’s oldest civilizations, had deteriorated sharply after the intense clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020, which marked the most severe military conflict between them in decades. Few people realize that Russia played a significant role in diffusing tensions in 2020, preventing what could have escalated into a major war, which would have set both nations back by decades. So, what geopolitical changes led China to suddenly decide to pull back to the original Line of Actual Control (LAC)? Apart from a few key figures, such as External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, no one in India will ever truly know what transpired during the meeting between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Russia. Indian media is busy celebrating it as an Indian victory as they also do not know the true story.
As an Indian, I am happy with this development, as I have always hoped that India and China would prioritize their historically friendly relations and avoid conflict. However, India must remain cautious. Communist China today is vastly different from the pre-communist era, and history has shown that regimes driven by ideologies such as communism, Nazism, or jihadism tend to break agreements.
Here are some key factors that I believe contributed to the disengagement:
- Failed Attempt at Regime Change in India: Most Indians are aware that foreign powers, including China, tried everything in their playbook—spreading misinformation through platforms like ChatGPT, manipulating social media, and influencing mainstream media—to prevent Narendra Modi from securing a third term in 2024. Though they couldn’t stop Modi, they may have succeeded in weakening his political clout to some extent. The next five years might not be as smooth as the last decade for him. China knows it has to deal with Modi for at least another five years unless he steps down due to the RSS’s informal rule that limits ministerial posts to those under 75. Even if Modi resigns in 2025, the new leadership is likely to follow his blueprint. So, China may have decided that a more cooperative stance with India is its best bet.
- Focus on the South China Sea and Taiwan: China knows that India is the ONLY country in the world that will never break any agreement, regardless of political changes. That reliability gives China some breathing room to focus on bigger, more pressing issues—like the South China Sea dispute with the Philippines and the Taiwan issue with the U.S. Beijing needs its military fully focused on these areas, especially if tensions with NATO escalate. Also, India has been selling Brahmos to the Philippines, which is not a good sign for China given the lethal capability of Brahmos. By maintaining friendly relations with India, China might hope to convince New Delhi to slow down or stop selling these weapons to countries in its immediate neighborhood.
- Trade Challenges with the West: China has been hit hard by tariffs and sanctions from the U.S. and European nations, which have impacted its exports. If it loses more ground in Western markets, China needs a big alternative market to offset the damage, and India fits the bill. China has seen how Russia has managed to weather Western sanctions largely thanks to its strong ties with India. On top of that, China’s exports to India far outweigh India’s exports to China, making India a valuable trading partner. Given the growing tension between China and the West, it simply doesn’t make sense for Beijing to risk losing another major market over a border skirmish. Hence, the change in China’s approach may be driven by economic realities.
- Political Shifts in Pakistan and Bangladesh: The regime changes in Pakistan and Bangladesh have made it harder for China to exert influence in those countries. The current governments in both nations are not as pro-China as the previous ones, and Beijing has seen its influence wane there over the last few years. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but China seems to be shifting its focus away from these unstable nations and toward India, which offers a more stable and predictable partnership.
- Russia’s Critical Role: The Russia-Ukraine war has made Russia one of the most sanctioned countries in modern history. To mitigate the economic impact of these sanctions, Russia has significantly improved its trade relationships with both China and India. Russian leaders understand that a conflict between India and China would not only destabilize these two major countries but also jeopardize Russia’s efforts to navigate and counteract international sanctions. Recognizing these risks, Russia has been actively engaging with both China and India to prevent conflict and restore amicable relations. By doing so, Russia aims to preserve its strategic partnerships and ensure that the economic and geopolitical balance remains favorable to its interests. Maintaining stability between India and China is crucial for Russia’s broader strategy of managing sanctions and reinforcing its position in the global arena.
Please let me know in the comments what you think of this major progress.